Here are a few measures of inflation:
The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had been mentioning when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is now up 3.2% YoY.
This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through June 2023.
Services less rent of shelter was up 3.2% YoY in June, down from 4.2% YoY in May.
Commodities less food and energy commodities were up 1.4% YoY in June, down from 2.0% YoY in May.
Shelter was up 7.8% year-over-year in June, down from 8.0% in May. Housing (PCE) was up 8.3% YoY in May, down from 8.4% in April.
The BLS noted this morning: “The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing.” Asking rent increases have slowed sharply, and these measures of shelter will continue to decline.