Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate
A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). This has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply now (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through April 2023, except CoreLogic is through May and Apartment List is through May 2023.
The CoreLogic measure is up 4.3% YoY in March, down from 5.0% in February, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.
The Zillow measure is up 5.3% YoY in April, down from 6.0% YoY in March, and down from a peak of 16.9% YoY in February 2022.
The ApartmentList measure is up 0.9% YoY as of May, down from 1.8% in April, and down from a peak of 18.3% YoY November 2021.
My view is it is likely that we will see a year-over-year decline in asking rents sometime in the next couple of months. There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/