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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY


From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content).  Brief excerpt:The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory.

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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for September (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.4 million SAAR, would be up 2% from last month, and up 13% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

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