On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.7%.
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in September to 51.2%, up from 48.5% last month. This would suggest about 10,000 job lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 12,000 manufacturing jobs lost in September.
The ISM® services employment index decreased to 53.4%, down from 54.7%. This would suggest about 165,000 jobs added in the service sector. Combined this suggests job gains of 155,000 in September, close to consensus expectations.
• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a sharp decrease in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 240,000 in August to 202,000 in September. This suggests fewer layoffs in September than in August.