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Q3 GDP Tracking: Moving Up


From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last report pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate
from the official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 2.7% q/q saar. [Aug 18th estimate]
emphasis addedFrom Goldman: July utilities output and auto production were stronger than our previous assumptions, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.4% (qoq ar). We also raised our domestic final sales growth forecast by five tenths to +2.6%. [Aug 16th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent on August 16, up from 5.0 percent on August 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 4.8 percent and 11.4 percent. [Aug 16 estimate]

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