The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July:
Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billion (0.8 percent).
The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in July and real PCE increased 0.6 percent; goods increased 0.9 percent and services increased 0.4 percent.
The July PCE price index increased 3.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 3.0 percent YoY in June, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2023 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.