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October Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.0 million SAAR, Up 9% YoY


From WardsAuto: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Looking Good Despite Strike-Related Inventory Losses (pay content).  Brief excerpt:Sales are showing surprising strength in October despite the inventory hits taken at Ford, GM and Stellantis from strike-related plant shutdowns. Still, industry inventory at the end of the month will be lower by an estimated 5% because of the shutdowns, and November deliveries will be negatively impacted, too, as the rest of the industry will not be in a strong position to make up the to-date losses at the Detroit 3.

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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 16.0 million SAAR, would be up 2% from last month, and up 9% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

New Home Sales increase to 759,000 Annual Rate in September

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