On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 168,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%.
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM surveys are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased in October to 46.8%, down from 51.2% the previous month. This would suggest about 35,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 3,000 manufacturing jobs gained in October.
The ISM® services employment index will be released tomorrow.
• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 202,000 in September to 200,000 in October. This suggests about the same number of layoffs in October as in September.
• Strikes: The CES strike report showed a total of 48,100 workers on strike in October, 30,400 new (mostly UAW), and no strikers that returned to work for the October reference period (contains the 12th of the month). This will reduce employment by about 30 thousand in October.