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Morning Report: August lock volume declines


Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flat this morning after a long weekend. Bonds and MBS are down.

The upcoming week is pretty data-light as is typical in the week after the jobs report. The most important report will be the ISM Services index on Wednesday, along with the second estimate for Q2 productivity.

Friday’s jobs report sent rates lower, however comments from Loretta Mester reversed the rally in bonds. I was hoping that the move was just a lack of liquidity ahead of a long weekend, but rates remain higher this morning.

Mortgage Capital Trading, Inc. (MCT®), a leading mortgage hedge advisory and secondary marketing software firm, reported today a slight 4.76% decline in mortgage lock volume over the prior month. The slight dip in mortgage lock volume is likely attributed to an increase in mortgage rates through the last month. “The summer buying season may have provided a nice backstop to prevent lock volume from dropping further this month,” said Andrew Rhodes, Senior Director, Head of Trading at MCT. “If we continue into this restrictive territory through the winter buying season, we could see additional contraction through the rest of 2023.”

The latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now index sees Q3 growth at 5.6%, which seems completely out-to-lunch in the current debate whether the US will have a hard landing or a soft landing.

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