Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: The Second Half “Bear Steepener”: Higher for Longer, a Higher R*, and A Rising Term Premium
A brief excerpt: NOTE: This is technical and related to these earlier notes (and mortgage rates):
August 15th: The “New Normal” Mortgage Rate Range
Below is a chart showing the Treasury yield curve from 1 to 30 years yesterday compared to the end of each of the previous four months.
As the graph and table show, the one-year Treasury yield hasn’t moved much since middle of the year, while the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields have increased by over 100 basis points. While the yield curve is still very inverted by historical standards, it is a far cry from the “uber-inversion” of earlier in the year.There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/