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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July


Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY

A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July, down 1.0% from June’s preliminary pace and down 16.8% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from last July.And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 14.2%. In June, these same markets were down 16.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates – and sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to 4.06 million.

More local markets to come! There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 8% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY

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