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August Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.3 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY


From WardsAuto: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to a 19% Increase; SAAR Weakens from July (pay content).  Brief excerpt:Keeping sales from growing faster are still-elevated average vehicle prices and inventory stuck at historic lows with the mix slanted toward higher cost models and trims levels. Fleet volume in August also is not expected to rebound from a seasonal decline in July and is partly behind the expected 6.3% increase in inventory from July.

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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.3 million SAAR, would be down 3% from last month, and up 16% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

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